Italy’s import dependence supported sustained price differentials across Southeast Europe in Week 24. Italy remained the highest-priced SEE comparator at €123.17/MWh, despite a 3.8% decline in its day-ahead price. The premium compared with Serbia at €78.22/MWh, Greece at €91.53/MWh, Bulgaria at €93.58/MWh, and Türkiye at €22.85/MWh.
Day-ahead pricing and regional comparator levels
The relative pricing position of Italy kept regional spreads open during the week. While Italy’s day-ahead price moved lower by 3.8%, it still led the SEE comparator set. Serbia, Greece, Bulgaria and Türkiye posted materially lower day-ahead levels than Italy over the same period.
Demand-driven shift in Italy’s import needs
Demand dynamics were a key factor behind the spread support. Italian electricity consumption rose by 319.8 GWh (6.7%) to 5.12 TWh, representing the largest absolute weekly demand increase in the region. The higher load profile coincided with increased reliance on cross-border supply.
Italian net imports increased by 130.9 GWh (13.8%) to 1.08 TWh. This change aligned with the stronger demand level observed during the week.
Tighter generation balance and thermal output increase
Italy’s internal generation mix tightened alongside the demand and import changes. Thermal output increased by 191.1 GWh (17.6%), supported by both coal and gas-fired plants.
The combination of higher consumption, higher net imports, and increased thermal generation corresponded with Italy maintaining a persistent price premium while electricity prices softened more broadly across the region.
Cross-border outcomes for neighbouring systems
The structural spread also coincided with changes in neighbouring trade positions. Bulgaria expanded net exports by 103.2%, while Greece significantly reduced net imports during the week.
Türkiye strengthened its export position by 53.1%. In aggregate terms, Italy absorbed a large portion of regional surplus generation over the period.
Implications for Southeast Europe trading dynamics
Italy’s role remained central to SEE cross-border trading dynamics during Week 24. When Italian demand increases, cross-border capacity becomes more valuable for market participants.
The availability of interconnector capacity was identified as the key constraint rather than demand itself, affecting how lower-priced Balkan generation can be directed into commercial outlets.
Overall, Italy continued to act as a price anchor and import sink for the region, supporting commercially relevant SEE cross-border spreads during periods of strong demand and high renewable output across neighbouring markets.